Foundation for Defense of Democracies Senior Vice President for Research Dr. Jonathan Schanzer weighs in on the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah following IDF strikes and the possible response from Iran.
The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has sparked renewed attention on the inner workings of the Shiite terrorist organization, widely considered the de facto ruler of Lebanon. Following Nasrallah's demise, the group faces uncertain leadership prospects.
Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), believes that Hezbollah's leadership has been significantly weakened by Nasrallah's absence. "I don't think there's a lot there," Schanzer said, referring to the remaining leadership. "Nasrallah was the glue that held the organization together. Without him, I think there's going to be a lot of infighting and jockeying for position."
'I don't think there's a lot there': FDD's Schanzer on what's left in Hezbollah leadership
Hezbollah has a long history of involvement in terrorism, including the bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut in 1983 and the Marine barracks bombing in the same city that year, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of Americans. The group has also played a significant role in the Syrian civil war, supporting the Assad regime and perpetrating atrocities against civilians.
Following Nasrallah's assassination, Hezbollah is likely to seek revenge against Israel, which it holds responsible for the attack. However, Schanzer believes that the group's ability to carry out such reprisals is limited. "Hezbollah is in a very difficult position," he said. "They're under a lot of pressure from Israel, they're under a lot of pressure from Iran, and they're under a lot of pressure from within their own ranks."
'I don't think there's a lot there': FDD's Schanzer on what's left in Hezbollah leadership
Schanzer said that FDD's assessment of Hezbollah's leadership crisis is based on conversations with "individuals who have access to sources inside the organization." He believes that the group's leadership vacuum will present an opportunity for Israel and other regional actors to "put pressure on Hezbollah and make it more difficult for them to operate."
The assassination of Nasrallah has also raised questions about the future of Iran's support for Hezbollah. Iran has been Hezbollah's primary sponsor since its founding in 1982, providing the group with financial, military, and logistical support. However, Iran is facing its own economic and political challenges, which could potentially affect its ability to continue supporting Hezbollah at the same level.
'I don't think there's a lot there': FDD's Schanzer on what's left in Hezbollah leadership
Schanzer believes that Iran will continue to support Hezbollah, but that the level of support could decrease in the future. "Iran is going to have to make some tough decisions about where it wants to allocate its resources," he said. "Hezbollah is a major priority, but it's not the only priority."
The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah has undoubtedly dealt a blow to Hezbollah. The group's leadership is in disarray, and its future relationship with Iran is uncertain. While Hezbollah is likely to continue posing a threat to Israel and regional stability, its diminished capabilities make it less of a threat than it has been in the past.
'I don't think there's a lot there': FDD's Schanzer on what's left in Hezbollah leadership
In addition to the challenges it faces internally, Hezbollah is also facing pressure from Israel and other regional actors. Israel has been carrying out airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and Syria, and Saudi Arabia has been providing financial and military support to Hezbollah's opponents within Lebanon.
The combination of these factors suggests that Hezbollah's future is uncertain. The group may be able to continue operating in the near term, but its long-term prospects are bleak.
'I don't think there's a lot there': FDD's Schanzer on what's left in Hezbollah leadership
